NEW CASTLE —
There may be some exceptions, but presidential elections usually generate a higher voter turnout than so-called off-year elections.
The question is, how much effect will voter turnout for this year’s presidential race have on other contests, including those for Congress and the state Legislature?
The 2008 and 2010 general elections provide some insight into what may happen — at least locally on Nov. 6.
In 2008, approximately 42,800 Lawrence County residents voted. Barack Obama lost the county to John McCain by about 2,000 votes.
With two exceptions, all other Democrats on the ballot carried Lawrence County. Those exceptions were Tom Corbett, who won re-election as attorney general, and Elder Vogel, who won election as state senator.
One of the Democrats who won was U.S. Rep. Jason Altmire. He carried the county over Republican Melissa Hart by about 9,000 votes.
Two years later, Altmire defeated Keith Rothfus in the county by less than 3,000 votes.
That was the year when Republicans gained control of the U.S. House and made inroads in the U.S. Senate. So, the Republican tide may have had some effect on local races.
But so did turnout. A little more than 28,000 Lawrence County residents voted in the 2010 election. That was about 14,000 fewer voters than the 2008 presidential election.
In a county where Democrats hold a big registration advantage, that dropoff in voter participation can be significant for Democratic candidates.
There certainly was no coattail effect in 2008. Voters overall looked at each race in its own context and voted accordingly.
That should be the case again this year. Although nobody has a crystal ball, there is consensus that President Obama will lose Lawrence County again. But based on past experience, the coattails will be short or nonexistent in the county on either the Republican or Democratic side.
However, this year’s election will bring out a higher number of voters than two years ago and that should translate into an advantage for Democratic candidates on the ballot in Lawrence County. That doesn’t necessarily mean a win for Democrats in each race, but an advantage nonetheless.
Local News
Related Photos
-
About John Manna: John covers politics for The News. His "Focus" column appears each Saturday.
Discussion
John K. Manna: Higher turnout in county helps Democrats
- Local News
-
-
Movie Memories, Part 3: The Hi-Lander and Cinema theaters were the last two New Castle movie houses to go dark
Although the downtown once was dotted with movie theaters, one of the last to close was well up the North Hill. The 750-seat Hi-Lander opened in 1952, the result of a joint effort by two pairs of area drive-in owners: Al Tate and John Wincek (Highway 51 near Darlington, and John Favorite and Joe Glorioso (Blue Sky near Zelienople).
-
No tax hike in Union school budget
The Union Area School Board has introduced a $10.6 budget with no tax increase. If the $10,585,494 spending plan is approved, it will be the third year without a tax increase in the district. The property tax is at 14.42 mills.
-
Movie Memories, Part 2: Monsters, cowboys and ultimately, sex, were staples at State Theater
Second in a series: Daily through Memorial Day, the New Castle News will be looking back at some of the city’s now-defunct movie theaters. These movie houses will be seen primarily through the eyes of New Castle natives with ties to them — including “Mister Movie” himself, Leo Mickey. Today: The State Theater
-
Movie Memories, Part 1: Victor one of many long-gone local theaters
First in a series: Today through Memorial Day, the New Castle News will be looking back at some of the city’s now-defunct movie theaters. These movie houses will be seen primarily through the eyes of New Castle natives with ties to them — including “Mister Movie” himself, Leo Mickey. Today: The Victor
-
Our Opinion: Make the most of your power to vote by casting ballot tomorrow
So what kind of turnout will there be for tomorrow’s primary? Recent history suggests somewhere between low and lousy. This year’s elections are devoted to local races, and there are few major ones being contested in the primary.
-
Relay for Life set for next week
New Castle’s Relay for Life will kick off at 7 p.m. May 31 on the track at Shenango High School’s Glen “Pop” Johnston Stadium. Relay for Life is an organized, overnight fundraising walk for the American Cancer Society.
-
New Castle News names new publisher
Sharon A. Sorg is no stranger to hometown newspapers. It’s no surprise, then, that she’s been selected to lead the newspaper in her hometown. Sorg has been named publisher of the New Castle News, which is just a few miles from her residence in Pulaski Township.
-
Rockin’ Recess: Laurel youngsters earn a morning of music, health education
Hands clapping. Arms waving. Crowd chanting. That was the scene at Laurel Elementary School yesterday morning. Laurel beat out four other school districts in the UPMC For Kids and Radio Disney-sponsored “Attendance Counts” competition.
-
Memorial service scheduled
The annual Croton Memorial Service will begin at 2 p.m. Sunday at the Croton Honor Roll. U.S. Rep. Mike Kelly will be the guest speaker.
-
John Russo Jr. Remembered: Colleagues salute former councilman
Honest and dedicated. That is how those who knew John Russo Jr. well described him after his passing Tuesday. Russo served as a member of New Castle City Council for more than 17 years at four different times from 1985 through 2009.
- More Local News Headlines
-
Raw: Aftermath of Deadly Attack in London
Today in History May 22
Raw: Students Clash With Police in Chile
Raw: Costa Rica Volcano Roars to Life
Tim Cook Defends Apple's Tax Accounting
Raw: Japan's WWII Atrocities Under Fire in Seoul
Raw: Aussie Zoo Shows Off White Rhino Calf
Today in History for May 21st
Bank Shooting Rampage in Israel Kills 4
Wave of Attacks Kills Scores in Iraq
Raw: Fierce Bombing in Qusair, Syria
Fatal Hot Air Balloon Accident in Turkey
Raw: Accused US Spy Reportedly Leaves Russia
Today in History for May 20th
Today in History for May 19th
Raw: Gun Scare Mars Cannes Film Festival
Raw: Driver Ejected From Truck, Over Bridge
Raw: Germany Protestors Picket Barbie House
One Million Evacuated As Cyclone Hits Bangladesh
Raw: 6 Die in Russian Ship Fire
