NEW CASTLE —
Editor, The News:
Everyone is offering predictions about the presidential election outcome. Now it’s my turn and I intend to do it by the numbers.
Forget the poll numbers, I’m talking the election return numbers from four years ago.
In 2008, Barack Obama captured 53.69 percent of the combined Democratic and Republican votes and John McCain got 46.3 percent.
There was an increased voter turnout of about 8.5 million — all voting for Obama. Republicans did not turn out and many stayed home or voted for fringe candidates due to their disillusionment with McCain.
This year, however, Democrats are the ones disillusioned, and they are not jazzed to rush out to cast another vote for someone they correctly view as a failure.
The Republicans and many independents, on the other hand, are ready to claw their way to the polling place if necessary to vote Obama out of office. Additionally, no one who voted for McCain in 2008 is going to vote for Obama this year.
Therefore, it really boils down to those extra 8.5 million who voted last time. I’ll be generous to Obama and say that 50 percent of the 8.5 million, composed mainly of one-issue minority voters, will again vote for him; 23 percent, composed of disillusioned minorities, won’t vote at all.
And 27 percent, composed of disgusted Independents, will switch their vote to Romney. That produces a Romney victory where he gets 50.43 percent and Obama gets 49.57 percent. Close, but still a Romney victory.
If those 8.5 million don’t vote, then the margin increases, with Romney at 51.24 percent and Obama at 48.76 percent.
I’m only talking the popular vote, and there is always the wild card of the Electoral College and where those votes are located.
Joseph K. Waltenbaugh
NEW CASTLE —
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