NEW CASTLE —
When you get down to it, predictions about what will happen in the future are a dime a dozen.
Popularly, they range from the notion of a unified humanity found in the “Star Trek” science fiction sagas to the fear that time itself will end later this month based on an interpretation of ancient Mayan calendars.
On a more serious level are models of things to come that perhaps paint a gloomy picture of a world low on resources and struggling with the consequences of global warming. Or they may envision a scenario where humanity is uplifted by advancing technology and increased demands for freedom. But generally speaking, they indeed argue that humanity has a future, albeit one that’s a mixed bag.
This week, the National Intelligence Council issued its annual report of expectations for the future. Called “Global Trends 2030,” it’s based on the analysis provided by America’s various intelligence agencies, produced by gathering existing data, reviewing policies of governments around the world and extrapolating what’s known today into the future.
The result is interesting. In many ways, the world of 2030 will be decidedly different than it is today if intelligence agency predictions pan out.
For one thing, the report envisions an America that’s energy independent. That’s a far cry from the current situation, where the United States remains heavily dependent on foreign oil.
How will this independence arise? From exploitation of shale gas, such as the layers found under Lawrence County. But for this to happen, many technological adjustments will be required. For instance, today’s gasoline engines would have to give way to ones powered by natural gas.
And what happens if America is no longer interested in the politics of various unstable regions where today’s oil is found? That alone could lead to dramatic changes in the international landscape, including a reduced need for an American military presence around the globe.
Significantly, this report expects Asia to surpass the West in economic activity. That’s hardly a surprise given current trends. But we note something similar was once predicted for Japan, and that country’s anticipated dominance went by the wayside.
That’s the problem with predictions: They never can take everything into account. And sometimes, unexpected events come into play.
For this reason, Global Trends offers different scenarios for the future, depending on a variety of factors. And while it anticipates a decline in Islamic radicalism, it sees instability elsewhere as shortages of water and other resources create conflicts in some parts of the globe.
This report, of course, is not merely idle speculation. Rather, it’s intended to assess the world in order to avoid some negative outcomes and mitigate others. To prevent problems, it’s essential to know that they lurk on the horizon.
Editorials
Our Opinion: Key predictions assess trends, show need to act
- Editorials
-
-
Our Opinion: Privatization of county jail is worthy of examination
Generally speaking, we support government efforts to seek more efficient ways to provide essential services. So we have no problem with the decision by the Lawrence County commissioners to solicit proposals for the private operation of the county jail.
-
Our Opinion: We endorse candidates for New Castle board
The New Castle school district is often a study in contrasts. There are complaints about the district on everything from taxes to nepotism, from test scores to ethical slights. Yet at the same time, plenty of students within the district excel. It’s a tribute to the hard work of those students, their families and the educators who support them.
-
Our Opinion: You should be frightened, outraged by IRS abuse of power
When people talk about government posing a threat to citizens, a common topic these days is unmanned drones. But a more credible threat may be the Internal Revenue Service. This agency, responsible for collecting taxes and enforcing related rules, has the ability to make life miserable for the average individual.
-
Our Opinion: Our endorsements for City Council race
The city of New Castle needs help. Financially distressed and operating under Pennsylvania’s Act 47, New Castle must find ways to reverse its population loss and fiscal challenges.
-
Our Opinion: Court frowns on gerrymandering, but only slightly
Pennsylvania legislators have received the green light to put their own political interests ahead of yours. That’s a key point in the latest Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruling on legislative apportionment in the commonwealth.
-
Our Opinion: Study says distracted driving deaths are under reported
Suppose you operated a piece of heavy machinery at your job. And suppose it’s machinery that moves quickly with little effort. What would happen if you decided to take one hand off that equipment — while it was still in motion — and instead focused your attention on a telephone call?
-
Our Opinion: Senate seeks to give states more taxing power
Congress is taking a stab at tax fairness. At least, where states are concerned. If you’re looking for meaningful reform of the federal tax code, that’s going to have to wait.
-
Our Opinion: Look at handling of bombing suspects is warranted
We welcome an investigation into the handling of intelligence related to suspects in the Boston Marathon bombing. That probe may reveal little of value.
-
Our Opinion: Right to know reveals intermediate unit problem
At this point, we have few details regarding the resignation of the director of this region’s intermediate unit. Apparently, there was a problem with purchases Cecelia H. Yauger made with a government credit card through the state agency that provides support services to area school districts.
-
Our Opinion: New wave of ethics initiatives arrives in Harrisburg
There may be hope yet for Harrisburg. Recent signs suggest that even lawmakers are grasping that the ethics situation in the state capital is taking its toll. Maybe they are hearing from constituents who are fed up with the commonwealth’s seemingly endless string of scandals.
- More Editorials Headlines
-
